www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk               Tuesday, 03-Mar-2009

 

Liverpool v Sunderland

Tuesday 3rd March 8pm ko Live on Sky

 

H2H

 

2008/2009

Premier League

16/08/2008

Sunderland

0-1

Liverpool

2007/2008

Premier League

02/02/2008

Liverpool

3-0

Sunderland

Premier League

25/08/2007

Sunderland

0-2

Liverpool

2005/2006

Premier League

30/11/2005

Sunderland

0-2

Liverpool

Premier League

20/08/2005

Liverpool

1-0

Sunderland

 

 

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES)

 

LIVERPOOL – HOME

 

WON

14

70%

2/5

DRAW

6

30%

23/10

LOST

0

0%

-

 

 

 

 

OVER 2.5 GOALS

11

55%

5/6

UNDER 2.5 GOALS

9

45%

6/5

 

 

 

 

FOUR GOALS OR MORE

5

25%

3/1

0-0 DRAW

3

15%

11/2

 

SUNDERLAND – AWAY

 

WON

5

25%

3/1

DRAW

6

30%

23/10

LOST

9

45%

6/5

 

 

 

 

OVER 2.5 GOALS

8

40%

6/4

UNDER 2.5 GOALS

12

60%

4/6

 

 

 

 

FOUR GOALS OR MORE

3

15%

11/2

0-0 DRAW

3

15%

11/2

 

 

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 5 LEAGUE GAMES)

 

OVER 2.5 GOALS

1

20%

4/1

UNDER 2.5 GOALS

4

80%

1/4

 

 

 

 

FOUR GOALS OR MORE

0

0%

-

0-0 DRAW

0

0%

-

 

 

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME

 

THE PREMIERSHIP

2.5

HOME

AWAY

LIVERPOOL

2.3

2.2

2.5

SUNDERLAND

2.3

2.3

2.3

 

 

CURRENT FORM

 

LIVERPOOL LAST FIVE GAMES

 

FA Cup

04/02/2009

Everton

1-0

Liverpool

LOST

Premier League

07/02/2009

Portsmouth

2-3

Liverpool

WON

Premier League

22/02/2009

Liverpool

1-1

ManCity

DRAW

European Cup

25/02/2009

Real Madrid

0-1

Liverpool

WON

Premier League

28/02/2009

Middlesbrough

2-0

Liverpool

LOST

 

 

SUNDERLAND LAST FIVE GAMES

 

Premier League

27/01/2009

Sunderland

1-0

Fulham

WON

Premier League

01/02/2009

Newcastle

1-1

Sunderland

DRAW

FA Cup

04/02/2009

Blackburn

2-1

Sunderland

LOST

Premier League

07/02/2009

Sunderland

2-0

Stoke

WON

Premier League

21/02/2009

Arsenal

0-0

Sunderland

DRAW

 

 

TEAM NEWS

 

Fernando Torres will again miss out for Liverpool with an ankle injury.

 

Right backs Alvaro Arbeloa and Phillip Degen are also ruled out.

 

Daniel Agger continues to struggle with a back injury.

 

Kenwyne Jones, Djibril Cisse, Steed Malbranque and Teemu Tanio are all available for Sunderland after recent injuries.

 

Nyron Nosworthy remains on the sidelines with a hamstring strain.

 

 

Liverpool Squad: Reina, Carragher, Skrtel, Hyypia, Dossena, Aurelio, Babel, Benayoun, Gerrard, Mascherano, Alonso, Kuyt, Lucas, Ngog, El Zhar, Riera, Darby, Cavalieri.

 

 

Sunderland Squad: Fulop, Gordon, Bardsley, McCartney, Ferdinand, Collins, McShane, Davenport, Ben Haim, Whitehead, Malbranque, Leadbitter, Tainio, Richardson, Edwards, Yorke, Reid, Cisse, Jones, Murphy, Healy

 

 

 

 

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

 

LIVERPOOL                                                                 SUNDERLAND

 

PLAYER

Goals

 

PLAYER

Goals

Steven Gerrard

9

 

Djibril Cisse

9

Fernando Torres

8

 

Kenwyne Jones

7

Dirk Kuyt

7

 

Michael Chopra

2

Robbie Keane

5

 

Kieran Richardson

2

Alberto Riera

2

 

David Healy

1

Xabi Alonso

2

 

Andy Reid

1

 

 

THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)

 

LIVERPOOL                   1/2      67%

DRAW                           3/1      25%     

SUNDERLAND              12/1      8%

 

 

 

ANALYSIS

 

MATCH:

 

Liverpool have managed to win just two of their seven league games so far in 2009, as good as conceding defeat in the title race in the process. When the dust has settled come May, lazy commentators will point to “Rafa’s rant” in January as the reason for their failure. The actual date Liverpool lost the title was 31st August 2008, when the transfer window closed and Albert Riera was the only creative midfielder Benitez had signed. This reason Liverpool did not win the title this season is a glaring lack of creativity and even if Torres had stayed fit, he would not have been given enough goal scoring opportunities.

 

Liverpool rely almost completely on Steven Gerrard to create chances. The likes of Babel, Benayoun, Riera and Kuyt are not players good enough to be playing in a championship winning side. None of them would get into Man United’s or Chelsea’s sides and this is the root of Liverpool’s problems. Ryan Babel is a full backs dream. All you have to do is wait for him to cut inside before taking the ball of him. If anyone has any footage of him actually beating a full back and putting a cross into the box then please send it to me. In eight starts and fifteen substitute appearances, Babel has contributed two goals and zero assists. Albert Riera has contributed three goals and two assists in twenty starts. On the other wing, Dirk Kuyt has managed just four assists in twenty seven starts. Benayoun is the best of a bad bunch of so called creative midfielders at Anfield, but even he struggles for consistency.

 

Liverpool’s home record in the premiership is outstanding and they are unbeaten in twenty four home games. You have to go back sixty seven home games to find the last time anyone but Man Utd won in the league at Anfield. It’s an incredible eighty four games since a club from outside the big four took all three points home with them, going all the way back to 2004! Consequently, a Sunderland victory is pretty hard to contemplate. Liverpool have won all of the last five meetings between the two and all without conceding. Sunderland also have just two draws against Arsenal to show from thirteen matches against big four opposition in the last two seasons. The Black Cats have failed to score in eleven of these games. Liverpool “to win to nil”, is therefore a decent option at 5/4, although I am a little worried by the absence of Arbeloa at right back which could unbalance the back four.

 

The lack of creativity in the Liverpool midfield has resulted in six drawn home games out of thirteen this season and Sunderland notably achieved a 0-0 draw at Arsenal last time out. Therefore the draw at 10/3 is probably the value call in the match odds market, especially as Liverpool will be without Torres. However, I think that Liverpool’s players will be stung by recent criticism of their Premiership performances and can see a narrow, Steven Gerrard inspired victory. Liverpool’s inability to break teams down has seen them leading just twice at half time this season at home. Therefore, I think there is some value in backing draw/Liverpool at 7/2 in the halftime/fulltime market.

 

 

GOALS:

 

Four of the last five meetings between these two have featured two goals or less and I can see a similar outcome tonight. Without Torres, Liverpool’s goal threat is much diminished and 1-0 or 2-0 score lines are the most likely. A 0-0 draw could also be a possibility. Sixty percent of Sunderland’s last twenty away games have featured two goals or less and they will take a very negative approach tonight. Under 2.5 goals is available at 4/5 and wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world.

 

GOALSCORERS:

 

With Fernando Torres ruled out through injury, Liverpool will be looking to Steven Gerrard for goals and 5/1 about him scoring first is not a bad price. Gerrard pretty much plays up front for Liverpool these days, as well as taking free kicks and penalties. He is the club’s top goalscorer and needs just one more league goal to break into double figures. Sami Hyypia should start tonight with Carragher moving to right back and he is a little bit of value at 33/1 to get something from a set piece. For Sunderland, Djibril Cisse represents the best value at 10/1 to score first and he will be desperate to notch against his old club.

 

RECOMMENDATIONS

 

1pt DRAW HT / LIVERPOOL FT  7/2 LADBROKES



Best Wishes

The Oracle

www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk

 

[post match comment: Liverpool won 2-0 with two second half goals thus landing the bet ]