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Liverpool v
Sunderland
Tuesday 3rd
March 8pm ko
Live on Sky
H2H
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2008/2009
|
|
Premier League
|
16/08/2008
|
Sunderland
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0-1
|
Liverpool
|
|
2007/2008
|
|
Premier League
|
02/02/2008
|
Liverpool
|
3-0
|
Sunderland
|
|
Premier League
|
25/08/2007
|
Sunderland
|
0-2
|
Liverpool
|
|
2005/2006
|
|
Premier League
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30/11/2005
|
Sunderland
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0-2
|
Liverpool
|
|
Premier League
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20/08/2005
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Liverpool
|
1-0
|
Sunderland
|
HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST
20 GAMES)
LIVERPOOL – HOME
|
WON
|
14
|
70%
|
2/5
|
|
DRAW
|
6
|
30%
|
23/10
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LOST
|
0
|
0%
|
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
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OVER 2.5 GOALS
|
11
|
55%
|
5/6
|
|
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
|
9
|
45%
|
6/5
|
|
|
|
|
|
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FOUR GOALS OR MORE
|
5
|
25%
|
3/1
|
|
0-0 DRAW
|
3
|
15%
|
11/2
|
SUNDERLAND – AWAY
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WON
|
5
|
25%
|
3/1
|
|
DRAW
|
6
|
30%
|
23/10
|
|
LOST
|
9
|
45%
|
6/5
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OVER 2.5 GOALS
|
8
|
40%
|
6/4
|
|
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
|
12
|
60%
|
4/6
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOUR GOALS OR MORE
|
3
|
15%
|
11/2
|
|
0-0 DRAW
|
3
|
15%
|
11/2
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H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 5 LEAGUE GAMES)
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OVER 2.5 GOALS
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1
|
20%
|
4/1
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|
UNDER 2.5 GOALS
|
4
|
80%
|
1/4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
FOUR GOALS OR MORE
|
0
|
0%
|
-
|
|
0-0 DRAW
|
0
|
0%
|
-
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THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER GAME
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THE PREMIERSHIP
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2.5
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HOME
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AWAY
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|
LIVERPOOL
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2.3
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2.2
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2.5
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|
SUNDERLAND
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2.3
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2.3
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2.3
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CURRENT FORM
LIVERPOOL– LAST FIVE GAMES
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FA Cup
|
04/02/2009
|
Everton
|
1-0
|
Liverpool
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LOST
|
|
Premier League
|
07/02/2009
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Portsmouth
|
2-3
|
Liverpool
|
WON
|
|
Premier League
|
22/02/2009
|
Liverpool
|
1-1
|
ManCity
|
DRAW
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|
European Cup
|
25/02/2009
|
Real Madrid
|
0-1
|
Liverpool
|
WON
|
|
Premier League
|
28/02/2009
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Middlesbrough
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2-0
|
Liverpool
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LOST
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SUNDERLAND– LAST FIVE GAMES
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Premier League
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27/01/2009
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Sunderland
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1-0
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Fulham
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WON
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|
Premier League
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01/02/2009
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Newcastle
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1-1
|
Sunderland
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DRAW
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|
FA Cup
|
04/02/2009
|
Blackburn
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2-1
|
Sunderland
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LOST
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|
Premier League
|
07/02/2009
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Sunderland
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2-0
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Stoke
|
WON
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|
Premier League
|
21/02/2009
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Arsenal
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0-0
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Sunderland
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DRAW
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TEAM NEWS
Fernando Torres will again miss out for Liverpool
with an ankle injury.
Right backs Alvaro Arbeloa and
Phillip Degen are also ruled out.
Daniel Agger continues to
struggle with a back injury.
Kenwyne Jones, Djibril Cisse, Steed Malbranque and Teemu Tanio are all available for Sunderland
after recent injuries.
Nyron Nosworthy
remains on the sidelines with a hamstring strain.
Liverpool Squad: Reina, Carragher, Skrtel, Hyypia, Dossena, Aurelio, Babel, Benayoun,
Gerrard, Mascherano,
Alonso, Kuyt, Lucas, Ngog,
El Zhar, Riera, Darby, Cavalieri.
Sunderland Squad: Fulop, Gordon, Bardsley,
McCartney, Ferdinand, Collins, McShane, Davenport,
Ben Haim, Whitehead, Malbranque, Leadbitter, Tainio, Richardson, Edwards, Yorke,
Reid, Cisse, Jones, Murphy, Healy
TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)
LIVERPOOL
SUNDERLAND
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PLAYER
|
Goals
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PLAYER
|
Goals
|
|
Steven Gerrard
|
9
|
|
Djibril Cisse
|
9
|
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Fernando Torres
|
8
|
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Kenwyne Jones
|
7
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Dirk Kuyt
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7
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Michael Chopra
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2
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Robbie Keane
|
5
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Kieran Richardson
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2
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Alberto Riera
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2
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David Healy
|
1
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Xabi Alonso
|
2
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Andy Reid
|
1
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THE ORACLE’S MATCH PRICES (100% BOOK)
LIVERPOOL
1/2 67%
DRAW
3/1 25%
SUNDERLAND
12/1 8%
ANALYSIS
MATCH:
Liverpool have managed to win just two of their seven
league games so far in 2009, as good as conceding defeat in the title race in
the process. When the dust has settled come May, lazy commentators will point
to “Rafa’s rant” in January as the reason for their
failure. The actual date Liverpool lost the title was 31st August 2008, when
the transfer window closed and Albert Riera was the
only creative midfielder Benitez had signed. This reason Liverpool
did not win the title this season is a glaring lack of creativity and even if
Torres had stayed fit, he would not have been given enough goal scoring
opportunities.
Liverpool rely
almost completely on Steven Gerrard to create
chances. The likes of Babel, Benayoun, Riera and Kuyt are not players good enough to be playing in a
championship winning side. None of them would get into Man United’s or Chelsea’s sides and this is the root of Liverpool’s
problems. Ryan Babel is a full backs dream. All you have to do is wait for
him to cut inside before taking the ball of him. If anyone has any footage of
him actually beating a full back and putting a cross into the box then please
send it to me. In eight starts and fifteen substitute appearances, Babel
has contributed two goals and zero assists. Albert Riera
has contributed three goals and two assists in twenty starts. On the other
wing, Dirk Kuyt has managed just four assists in
twenty seven starts. Benayoun is the best of a bad
bunch of so called creative midfielders at Anfield,
but even he struggles for consistency.
Liverpool’s home record in the
premiership is outstanding and they are unbeaten in twenty four home games.
You have to go back sixty seven home games to find the last time anyone but
Man Utd won in the league at Anfield. It’s an
incredible eighty four games since a club from outside the big four took all
three points home with them, going all the way back to 2004! Consequently, a Sunderland
victory is pretty hard to contemplate. Liverpool have won all of the last five meetings between the two and
all without conceding. Sunderland also have just two
draws against Arsenal to show from thirteen matches against big four
opposition in the last two seasons. The Black Cats have failed to score in
eleven of these games. Liverpool “to win to nil”, is therefore a decent option at 5/4, although I am a
little worried by the absence of Arbeloa at right
back which could unbalance the back four.
The lack of creativity in the Liverpool
midfield has resulted in six drawn home games out of thirteen this season and
Sunderland notably achieved a 0-0 draw at Arsenal last
time out. Therefore the draw at 10/3 is probably the value call in the match
odds market, especially as Liverpool will be without
Torres. However, I think that Liverpool’s players will
be stung by recent criticism of their Premiership performances and can see a
narrow, Steven Gerrard inspired victory. Liverpool’s
inability to break teams down has seen them leading just twice at half time
this season at home. Therefore, I think there is some value in backing
draw/Liverpool at 7/2 in the halftime/fulltime market.
GOALS:
Four of the last five meetings between these two have
featured two goals or less and I can see a similar outcome tonight. Without
Torres, Liverpool’s goal threat is much diminished and
1-0 or 2-0 score lines are the most likely. A 0-0 draw could also be a
possibility. Sixty percent of Sunderland’s last twenty
away games have featured two goals or less and they will take a very negative
approach tonight. Under 2.5 goals is available at
4/5 and wouldn’t be the worst bet in the world.
GOALSCORERS:
With Fernando Torres ruled out through injury, Liverpool
will be looking to Steven Gerrard for goals and 5/1
about him scoring first is not a bad price. Gerrard
pretty much plays up front for Liverpool these days,
as well as taking free kicks and penalties. He is the club’s top goalscorer and needs just one more league goal to break
into double figures. Sami Hyypia
should start tonight with Carragher moving to right
back and he is a little bit of value at 33/1 to get something from a set
piece. For Sunderland, Djibril
Cisse represents the best value at 10/1 to score
first and he will be desperate to notch against his old club.
RECOMMENDATIONS
1pt DRAW HT / LIVERPOOL
FT 7/2 LADBROKES
Best Wishes
The Oracle
www.PremiershipPreview.co.uk
[post match comment: Liverpool won 2-0 with two second
half goals thus landing the bet ]
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